Friday, October 13, 2006

Polling Update

Hey everyone. I've got a good friend back west that keeps a keen eye on all things politics. He has been forwarding on some polling info, and I decided I wanted to share it will you. So here it is, appreciate the work on it Dylan!

WeÂ’ll start with numbers from a huge national Washington Post poll that was
released yesterday. Here are the results:

Bush Approval 39%

Disapprove 60%

Which party do you plan to vote for in Congressional elections?

Democratic 54

Republican 41

35% indicated that their vote for Congress would be based directly on a vote to
punish Bush. This is 12 percent higher than the sameindicatorr in 1994 of
voters wanting to punish Clinton after his first two years in the White House.

Has the conflict in Iraq been worth fighting?

No 63%

Yes 35%

Is the United States safer now or less safe since 9/11?

More safe now 50%

Less safe now 42%

Which party do you trust more to solve problems on the following issues:

Health Care:

Democrats 61

Republicans 28


Democrats 54

Republicans 37

Ethics in government:

Democrats 49

Republicans 30


Democrats 49

Republicans 36


Democrats 47

Republicans 41

Now, letÂ’s take a look at how these national trends are impacting specific races
which hold the key to the balance of power in Congress.

In the Senate,

Sen. Chafee is slipping behind Whitehouse further, now as far back as 6 or 7
depending on the poll. This would be a D Pickup.

Sen. LiebermanÂ’s lead is growing in Connecticut for an Independent who would
still caucus with the Democrats even though he would vote with the Rs on a lot
of issues

CaseyÂ’s lead over Sen. Santorum still holds at a minimum of 9 depending on the
poll. Santorum has never approached Casey since polling in this race started
over a year ago. Another new poll has Casey up by as much as 13. This would
be a D Pickup.

Sen. DeWine has been closing ground on Brown in Ohio but the most recent R
scandal has caused his momentum to stall. Ohio is very touch about scandal
these days given that Rep. Ney and Governor Taft among other Ohio Republicans
have either pled guilty or gone to jail to crimes. BrownÂ’s lead is currently 3
or 4 points depending on the poll. This would be a D Pickup. Polling numbers
out of Ohio, which Bush won narrowly two years ago indicate that economic
factors have overtaken social factors in determining how a large segment of the
population is going to vote. Moral issues have fallen on the scale for many
voters while at the same time for those voters in Ohio who place moral issues
at the top, and who voted R two years ago, are now indicating that they will
simply stay home this year out of disapproval of recent events in the
Republican Party.

Sen. Menendez has now solidified a lead over Kean in New Jersey. This shift has
come during the Foley situation. This was the only D incumbent in trouble in
the Senate previously but he is now ahead 4-7 points depending on the poll for
a D Hold.

Ford has taken a lead of 2-4 points over Corker in TN for the open Frist seat.
This race used to be tied or showed Corker with a slight lead. That has
disappeared since Foley with Ford pulling ahead. This would be a D Pickup.

The McCaskill race against Sen. Talent in MO is tied in multiple polls. MO once
again shaping up to be the bellwether. This race very well might determine
control of the Senate as you will see in a moment.

Tester is staying ahead of Sen. Burns in MT and in fact is increasing his lead
slightly by the day. This would be a D Pickup.

Finally, of the races that have been watched around the country, Sen. Cantwell
is opening up a near 10 point lead again in Washington for a D Hold.

If the election were held today, multiple partisan and independent polls
indicated that Senators Chafee, Santorum, DeWine, and Burns would all be
defeated and that Ford would take the open Frist seat in about the most
unlikely of states, Tennessee, a state which had become solidly Republican in
recent years. With the Ds holding all seats now in the partyÂ’s hands, the
numbers indicate that there would be 50 Democrats or Independents caucusing
with the Democrats, 49 Republicans with one seat tied, the one in MO. If
Talent wins re-election, that would tie the Senate at 50 and Vice President
Cheney would break the tie for the Republicans as President of the Senate. If
McCaskill were to win, that would push the Democrats over the top for 51-49
majority control. This is going to be a wild month!

In the House, tons of races have been tossed in to complete turmoil because of
the Foley situation. A couple of weeks ago it looked like the Democrats might
pick up enough seats to get close to a majority but not quite close enough,
though even two weeks ago the numbers for Republicans were troublesome in that
some close districts were getting tight for them. Now, seats that have been in
Republican hands for years show leads for the Democratic candidates. This is
particularly true in open seats where Republicans are retiring in states like
Arizona, Texas, and Florida. For example, the seat that Harris is giving up
for her Senate bid which she is currently about 20 points behind Sen. Nelson in
has been in R hands for a long time. The Democratic candidate leads there. In
Colorado, the seat being vacated by Republican Lamborn which has ultra
conservative Colorado Springs in it has the Democratic candidate leading by 4
points. The Republicans are actually pulling some media money out of races to
spend elsewhere. Most polls in district by district races now show that if the
election were held today, the Democrats would have more than enough seats to
take control of the House of Representatives. The biggest news on this front
came yesterday when Rep. Tom Davis, Republican of Virginia and the last head of
the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee told the Washington Post that he
now expects that the Democrats could have a net gain of 30 seats in the House,
twice as many as they need to take control.

I will try to get you all some more numbers late next week.

I'd also like to add that NBC Nightly News just happened to file a report in my hometown of Bozeman Montana, talking about the election. Lets boot Burns and pick up Tester!

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