Polling Update iii

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First, the Washington Post has done another large national poll, this one breaking responses down on some questions between Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Here’s the data:

Bush Approval—37 percent

Disapproval—63 percent


As for as issues of importance go, the top ranked issue determining a vote in the election is Iraq, with the economy being second.

If Iraq is the primary issue in determining your vote, which party will you vote for?

Democrats—76

Republicans—21


How would you rate the state of the American economy?

Excellent or good—55

Fair or poor—45


Do you personally feel that your own economic situation is getting better, staying the same, or getting worse?

Getting better—22

Staying the same—52

Getting worse—26


If the economy is the primary issue in determining your vote, which party will
you vote for?

Democrats—57

Republicans—39


This question asked of Independents--

On the following issues, which party do you trust more to do a better job handling:

Iraq:

Democrats—53

Republicans—30

Terrorism:

Democrats—48

Republicans—34

Economy:

Democrats—53

Republicans—33

Ethics in government:

Democrats—50

Republicans—24

North Korea:

Democrats—52

Republicans—29


These next three questions were asked of all and broken down by Democrats, Republicans, and Independents:


Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the situation in Iraq for the coming 12
months?

Republicans:

Optimistic—63

Pessimistic—36

Democrats:

Pessimistic—66

Optimistic—30

Independents:

Pessimistic—60

Optimistic—37

Overall:

Pessimistic—55

Optimistic—42


Do you think the conflict in Iraq has or has not damaged the image of the United States in the rest of the world?

Republicans:

Damaged—60

Not Damaged—39

Democrats:

Damaged—85

Not Damaged—14

Independents:

Damaged—81

Not Damaged—18

Overall:

Damaged—76

Not Damaged—22


If the election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your House district?

Republicans: 88 percent Republican, 10 percent Democratic

Democrats: 95 percent Democratic, 4 percent Republican

Independents: 59 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican

Overall: 54 percent Democratic, 41 percent Republican


Now on to some more specific numbers for the races at hand:

In the House of Representatives, where the Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to take control, current district by district polling indicates that if the election were held today, the Democrats will have a net gain of between 25 and 30 seats.


In the closely watched individual Senate races:

In CT, Sen. Lieberman maintains a double digit lead as an Independent caucusing with the Democrats.

In RI, Whitehouse leads Sen. Chaffee by 8 or 9 points depending on the poll for a D Pickup.

In PA, Casey leads Sen. Santorum by double digits for a D Pickup.

In NJ, Sen. Menendez holds a 3 point lead over Kean for a D Hold.

In VA, Sen. Allen maintains a 3-4 point lead over Webb depending on the poll for an R Hold.

In TN, Corker has come on in this see saw battle and now leads Ford by 2-3 points depending on the poll for an R Hold of the Frist seat.

In OH, Sen. DeWine has gained a little momentum back after falling behind in double digits but still trails Brown by 7-9 points for a D Pickup.

In MO, McCaskill is maintaining a slight lead over Sen. Talent of 1-2 points for a D Pickup.

In MT, Sen. Burns has shown some momentum after going down by nearly 10 but still trails Tester by 6-7 points for a D Pickup.


The Democrats need a net gain of 6 seats in the Senate to take control. Current state by state polling indicates that if the election were held today, the Democrats would have a net gain of 5 seats and that the Senate would be tied 50-50 with Vice President Cheney breaking the tie in favor of the Rs as President of the Senate for the Republicans to maintain control of the chamber.
The situation that has changed within recent days to prevent the Ds from getting the clean sweep they need is the Tennessee race where Corker is doing better. As I’ve stated before, the Democrats have no margin for error in any one race.