Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Polling update iv - Down to the wire

I just received the next polling update from my friend Dylan, here is the latest:

Greetings and Good Day to all,

I managed to make a few phone calls and get some e-mail this morning to obtain and scour the latest election polling data. Here’s the rundown with one week to go before Election Day.

In the Senate, it’s absolutely crazy with down to the wire campaigning, TV ads, attacks, and mobilization to achieve voter turnout next Tuesday being crucial.

In the MO race, three separate polls have the race between Sen. Talent and McCaskill tied. That’s a ton of polling data showing the same thing—a battle for just a few votes could make the difference. I remember years ago when deceased Governor Mel Carnihan beat Sen. Ashcroft with his wife Jean taking the seat narrowly. There were all kinds of wild stories coming out of MO including a voting machine from a Republican precinct being found in the middle of a vacant lot in St. Louis. Time for more fun??!! This could be a knock down, drag out fight to the finish in bellwether MO. This race is Too Close to Call.

In NJ, Sen. Menendez maintains his 3-7 point lead over Kean for a D Hold.

In Ohio, home state to the most disgusting university and college football program in America, Brown maintains a nearly 10-point lead over Sen. DeWine for a D Pickup.

In TN, Ford continues to fall behind Corker by about a point a day as attacks on Ford are hitting the mark there. Corker now leads by 7-8 points there for an R Hold of the open Frist seat. It looks like this race is quickly disappearing from the close margin column.

In RI, Whitehorse still leads Sen. Chafee by about 10 points in several polls for a D Pickup.

In PA, Casey still leads Sen. Santorum by double digits for a D Pickup.

In Montana, Sen. Burns once again, like in several races before, takes a licking and just keeps on ticking. He has now closed to within 4-5 points of Tester and this is a continuation of a trend where Tester led by almost 10 but now has a shrinking lead there. If Tester hangs on over the next seven days, this is a D Pickup.

I’ve saved the two wildest numbers for last. The second wildest number comes from Arizona. Arizona was considered to be a close race earlier this year but Sen. Kyl maintained a good lead there all year. New polling coming from several sources now shows Pederson gaining, now within 5-6 points. If Sen. Kyl hangs on over the next week, this is an R Hold.

In the wildest Senate number for today, multiple polls show Webb pulling ahead of Sen. Allen in Virginia. Webb is ahead of Allen currently 2-4 points depending on the poll. This has been reflected now in daily tracking for multiple days, which means something is happening in VA. This is now listed as a D Pickup.

To sum up, Senators Santorum, DeWine, and Chaffee look gone, Sen. Burns is still
trailing though closing the gap, while Sen. Allen is now behind as well, but very narrowly, with the MO race as close as can be. If the election were held today, current polling indicates that the Democrats would have a net gain of 5 seats, to make the Senate 50-50 with VP Cheney breaking the tie for the Rs to maintain control, and the MO race too close to call, thereby tipping the balance of power either way. At the moment, control of the Senate looks to come down to Virginia and Missouri. The Democrats would need to defeat both Republican incumbents.

In the House of Representatives, district by district polling indicates a net gain of between 23 and 30 seats for the Democrats depending on the data in the closest districts. As you know, the Democrats need a net gain of 15 to take control. The “conventional wisdom” in Washington even among Republicans as of today is that the Democrats will indeed take control of the House after 12 years in the minority. However, there is also a sense of caution and disbelief even in Democratic circles.

That is all for today.

No comments: