Thursday, November 02, 2006

Polling update v - 5 days left!

Get the coffee started Dylan, I'm sure its only going to get more interesting from here on out. Latest and greatest:


Here’s a quick rundown on the latest polling numbers gleaned from various daily tracking polls and stand alone polls.


In VA, Webb maintains a small lead over Sen. Allen of 1-2 points for a D Pickup.

In NJ, Sen. Menendez is now leading by double digits over Kean for a D Hold meaning no D Senate seats are in jeopardy currently.

In MT, Sen. Burns, the ever-dogged campaigner, continues his climb against Tester and has now closed to within 1-2 points, though Tester still leads and the Burns Re-Elect number continues to have pollsters saying this is a D Pickup. However, this race is now clearly in the upper most tier of competitive races to determine control of the Senate given the steady climb by Burns back in to this race.

In PA, Casey still leads Sen. Santorum by 8-12 points for a D Pickup.

In TN, Corker still leads Ford by as much as 10 points for an R Hold of the
Frist seat.

In OH, Brown maintains a lead over Sen. DeWine of 7-8 points for a D Pickup

In RI, Whitehouse has a double digit lead now over Sen. Chaffee for a D Pickup.

In MO, McCaskill has pulled ahead of Sen. Talent by 1-3 points depending on the poll for a D Pickup.

If the election were held today, current polling indicates that the Democrats would have a net gain of 6 seats in the Senate, for a 51-49 majority. In order for this to be achieved on Tuesday, McCaskill and Webb must maintain their very tiny leads over Republican incumbents and Tester must hang on over Sen. Burns in Montana. President Bush is out with Burns in Montana right now as I type this. Given Bush’s weak numbers even in Montana, this is obviously an effort by Burns to make sure that he gets the large Republican base in the state out to vote to offset highly motivated Democrats and Independents, with the Independents and Republican crossover votes having been responsible for the fact that the state’s other Senator and the state’s Governor are both


Here’s a small sampling of some of the interesting things happening in individual House districts.

In Ohio 2, Rep. Schmidt, the woman who called Rep. Murtha, a former Marine, a coward for suggesting a withdraw from Iraq is trailing her Democratic challenger Wulsin. Murtha, sure of his own re-election in PA, has been spending a lot of time campaigning with Wulsin.

In Arizona 5, long time conservative stalwart Rep. J.D. Hayworth who won his last re-election by over 20 points, now trails his Democratic challenger Mitchell.

In Illinois 6, the seat of retiring House Judiciary Committee Chair Henry Hyde which he has held forever in Republican hands, Democrat Tammy Duckworth, an Army National Guard Captain who had her helicopter shot down in Iraq and is a double amputee, is leading the race by double digits. This looks to be a sure D Pickup and will be one of the districts where TV news coverage will be focused on Tuesday night.

In Texas 22, Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s long time R seat, the Democrat Lampson is up by nearly ten points.

In North Carolina 11, former Washington Redskins quarterback Heath Schler leads
incumbent Republican Rep. Taylor.

District by district polling now indicates that the Democrats will have a net gain in the House of 30-40 seats, more than double the 15 needed to take control. Today pollster John Zogby predicted a net gain of 38 seats for the Democrats and said that as many as 40 could flip, approaching the number in 1994 when the Republicans had of a net gain of 52 seats when they took control of the House after 40 years of Democratic rule.

If there’s anything especially interesting to report to all of you tomorrow before the weekend, I’ll shoot out another e-mail. As so many of you are well aware, once we enter the 72 hour window prior to Election Day, that’s traditionally when all the undecideds make up their minds and the polls give the final indication of how things are going to go. I’ll be around so I’ll be sure to do as I’ve done in previous elections and get out those late polling numbers in a final polling update for everybody on Monday and/or Tuesday.

Have a good one.

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