BREAKING: Stanford Team Finds Blood Test to Identify Alzheimer's Disease

Researchers at Stanford University have developed a potentially pathbreaking blood test that, according to preliminary studies, is able to identify patients with Alzheimer's disease - an ailment that has been notoriously difficult to diagnose.

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15 Ridiculously Useful Websites

Here is a diverse list of useful websites - some you may know, but many you probably don't, that are there just to make life a little bit easier. From fitness and travel, to online coupons and recommended reading lists, this collection has a little something for everyone.

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Is your Doc on your Buddy List?

Dr. Jay Parkinson has taken a the old model of house calls and personal contact and given it a decidedly 21st century twist. Feeling under the weather, send him an IM. Just had a bike accident and worried about your knee, fire off a text message. I hope this catches on, I would love to sign up for a Doc that offers something similar.

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9/11 Is Over - by Thomas Friedman

"I will not vote for any candidate running on 9/11. We don’t need another president of 9/11. We need a president for 9/12. I will only vote for the 9/12 candidate.What does that mean? This: 9/11 has made us stupid. I honor, and weep for, all those murdered on that day. But our reaction to 9/11 has knocked America completely out of balance."

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Hercules Hits 130.7mph On a Bicycle

Markus Stoeckl just broke the World Speed Record for series mountain bikes, hitting an incredible 130.7mph, on a freaking mountain bike, people!Mr. Stoeckl is nicknamed "Hercules," not only because he drank the milk of a lion when he was younger, but also because he is 6'4", weighs 220lbs and travels at 130.7mph on a bicycle.Holy Jubezus! That's freaking flying! For the 40 sec run, at that speed, he would have traveled 1.45 miles. Absolutely crazy.

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Restore Habeas Corpus!

Trent Reznor: Steal My Music

Reznor to Fans: "Has anyone seen the price come down? Okay, well, you know what that means - STEAL IT. Steal away. Steal and steal and steal some more and give it to all your friends and keep on stealin'. Because one way or another these motherfuckers will get it through their head that they're ripping people off and that that's not right."You may not like his music, but you really have to respect his integrity. He stands by his music, and it highly upset at its explotation. This is one artist who doesn't just cash the check and look the other way as the recording industry scams over the fans.

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An open letter to iPhone owners from Steve Jobs

We have decided to offer every iPhone customer who purchased an iPhone from either Apple or AT&T, and who is not receiving a rebate or any other consideration, a $100 store credit towards the purchase of any product at an Apple Retail Store or the Apple Online Store.I was a little on the fence about the whole $200 price drop announced yesterday. I purchased my iPhone as my birthday gift at the end of July. There were two major reasons for this 1) My previous phone had just died and 2) I was banking on an updated phone either by the beginning of 2008 or a price drop in November to cash in on the Holidays. Since I was phone less, and needed a new one, my pain was not as severe as it would have been if I had solely based my decision of the pricing in point 2. It still stung that I was out $200 that really shouldn't have happened as quickly. As an early adopter, I was taking on the full retail price and the risks with a new technology. I understood that fully, but to cut the price a mere 10 weeks after launch (I've had my phone for around 6 weeks now) was unsettling. I'm pleasantly surprised by this move, and while I was willing to bite the bullet about my loss (I'll go over my rational later) this is a very generous offer by Apple's part and I greatly appreciate it.

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Gonzales Has Resigned as Attorney General

Alberto R. Gonzales, whose tenure has been marred by controversy and accusations of perjury before Congress, has resigned.I only have two words for this:ABOUT TIME!...and that is all I have to say about that. Well that, and the world has gotten a little brighter today.

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Very creative

Just wanted to share this. Things like this always cheers up the optimist in me.

Something is better than nothing.

I know I promised an update, but a synopsis will have to suffice. Here is what has been going on in my life for the past two months.

• Spent some good quality time with the boys. (which in its self needs an entire post dedicated to it)
• Melanie started her Comps for her PhD. Basically its the series of tests that will decide if she is allowed to move forward to her dissertation. The dissertation will decide if she is awarded her degree, so Comps is a big deal.
• Worked a near record (but not quite) 15 days in a row, averaging 10hrs plus per day. The reason? Melanie was out of town conducting research on the JMP-ACL project at the Air Force Academy, and I was helping to cover for an injured co-worker. Basically I worked everyday from July 5th till the 19th.
• Prior to the mega work stretch, I traveled with Melanie to California and had a chance to catch up with my good friend Owen and some of our college friends.
• Just got back from Melanie's High School reunion in Pullman WA. In the process of doing that we 1) Missed a massive heat wave that hit NC 2) Enjoyed marvelous 80 degree weather in Pullman 3) Celebrated Melanie's birthday 4) Had a surprise visit from Mel's brother whom had traveled 6 hours+ after work to get there 5) Went to the reunion and 6) Ran past a burning grain elevator. By ran past, I do me ran past, the trail was four feet from the grain elevator.
• Got a spiffy new iPhone.
• Found Melanie the perfect birthday gift.

There are some other things out there too, and most of this I have just glossed over. Things are going quite well, and obviously busy.

Update coming.. stay tuned.

Hey folks, sorry about the lack of any original posts lately. Things have been crazy busy for me and Mel and I'll post an update as soon as I can. In the mean time, I'll keep on throwing up the posts I feel are worthy of spending time to check out.

-S

FOX News: When the news doesn't fit, flip the party

Once is a mistake. But what are are the odds of all this happening by accident?

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So, as of yesterday, If you protest the war, the Prez can take your stuff

Was I only dreaming or did we use to have something called "Due Process of Law?"

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Generation Chickenhawk: College Republican Convention '07

Sure they support the war, but just how many College Republicans are willing to FIGHT the war? The answer might surprise... actually, it won't. Sadly, it's exactly what you would expect.

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Neocons on a Cruise: What Conservatives Say When They Think We Aren't Listening

Amazing story of a reporter who joined the crazy cruisers from the right wing nuts of "National Review". She starts with: "Is he your only child?" I ask. "Yes," she says. "Do you have a child back in England?" she asks. No, I say. Her face darkens. "You'd better start," she says. "The Muslims are breeding. Soon, they'll have the whole of Europe."

Right wing or Left, I am always open to honest discussions about the state of our Union and of the events unfolding day by day on the global stage. One particular maxim that I believe in is that deep down we agree on more things than we disagree on, and more often than not we only disagree on how to arrive at the same destination. What disheartens me the most has been the vilification of both sides. America has been split and spirited discourse has been shoved out of the way in order to maim, hurt, and/or kill of the other side. The middle ground has become a nuclear wasteland from which both sides have retreated and now only serves as the increasing divide between the two. I often think what we see now is a cosmic farce, the Cold War over and seemly forgotten, now replayed in the Political Theater of the victor. Both sides too prideful to back down, and that hubris is driving us toward catastrophe.

In times like these, I find a lot of insight of how we traveled down this dark and twisted road from articles like these. Reason has been forced out of the picture, due to its constant distortion of what people want to believe. I hold out hope that cooler heads prevail, and people are able to set aside the desire to be “right” and look up to see the dire brink we are currently standing on.

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President Bush Spending Billions for His Executive Offices [w/pic]

Bush is the first president to go into billion dollar spending for his executive offices... I'm not exactly sure what sort of staplers cost x10 what previous presidents used... but It better have frickin lasers on it. (Historical Spending Chart)

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Wedding trashers

The past year has seen the rise of a gleefully destructive post-wedding ritual: the "trash the dress" photo shoot, in which the bride models her gown while romping in the ocean, climbing up a fire escape, rolling in the mud, or, in at least one occasion, riding a horse.

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Keith Olbermann's Amazing and Eloquent Call for Bush and Cheney to Resign

This passionate, powerful summation is a must-read on the Eve of Independence Day. He spells out the horrific abuses of the Bush administration and their devastating impact on our nation. Please watch the video, too, as soon as it's posted to the Countdown Web site.

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BREAKING: Bush Commutes Scooter Libby's Prison Sentence

WASHINGTON - President Bush spared former White House aide I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby from a 2 1/2-year prison term on Monday, issuing an order that commutes his sentence. Also, it should be noted that Libby is now the first person to be convicted of Obstruction of Justice and have his sentence commuted. Un-freaking-believable!

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Sunburn and muscle cramps

Took a day off from any training yesterday and decided to jump in a lake instead. Melanie and all the other doc students received an invite out to Jordan Lake for a day in the sun. By default, I was lucky enough to tag along. We spent the next four hours floating around and having a good time. I returned with a nice sunburn, but an even sweeter burn pattern from where I missed applying the sun screen. It was only a mild first degree burn, so I would be surprised if it even peels. All in all it was a nice break from all that is going on.
Monday I decided to do a timed ten mile bike ride and 3 mile run in order to prepare for Sunday. I finished in an hour and some change, which is OK. I'd like to improve on my first triathlon time, maybe get under 1 hour 25 minutes, but the format is different, so its hard to say what I can expect. Nevertheless, I'm pretty excited about Sunday, and to top it off, that next week I get to hang out with a good friend down in LA. The next couple of days I am not planning on pushing very hard, don't want to cause any injuries before the race.

One week left.

Have a whole lot of events coming up here shortly, and I'm looking forward to it. Next weekend is my second triathlon, and first open water swim. The first triathlon I did was a pool swim, this time is out in the ocean for me. Mel's last triathlon was in the ocean, and she had quite an experience with it (you can check it out here), so I'm looking forward to my induction to the waves. We are bringing Kiera out with us for her first trip to the ocean. I predict a bath in her near future. After the triathlon, we have Melanie's national convention down in LA. She had hoped for a speaking presentation, but it seems that this year its poster presentation for everyone. The planning committee seems to have cut short the number of speakers this year to allow for folks to head out to Universal Studios and Disneyland, which is too bad. There is always next year.
After NATA, Mel heads straight to Colorado for JUMP-ACL, the large study she has been participating in for the past couple of years. That will keep her busy for a couple of weeks out at the Air Force Academy. While she is out there, I get to hold down the fort back in NC. That's ok, since we have a couple of other trips shortly after she returns. Summer sure is flying by.

Quick run down on Tri-work out

Real quick post here. Just wanted to jot down how I've been doing with the triathlon training.

Earlier this week I mainly focused on running.
Friday I completed training for 2100 m in the pool
Today I clocked in 35 min on the the bike trainer.

Only a couple of weeks till the next triathlon. Time to push it hard this week.

Water found on Mars!

Water (or perhaps clear ice) found on Mars!!!! (with picture). A new analysis of pictures taken by the exploration rover Opportunity reveals what appear to be small ponds of liquid water on the surface of Mars.



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Tank Man

Documentary about the legendary tank man and surrounding events of the Tienanmen Square protests in 1989. In this day and age when information is available to so many on such a large scale, there are many out there who do not enjoy such freedoms. This video is close to an hour, but please find the time to watch this. We must never forget the power of an idea, and what a single image can give rise to.

The Armageddon Flowchart

Two words: Awe. Some.



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An Egghead for the Oval Office

One thing that should be clear to anyone who's been paying attention these past few years is that we need to go out and get ourselves the smartest president we can find. We need a brainiac president, a regular Mister or Miss Smarty-Pants. We need to elect the kid you hated in high school, the teacher's pet with perfect grades.



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Nearly 30 DOJ Officials Threatened To Quit After Ashcroft Hospital Visit

Appalled by the White House's heavy-handed attempt to coerce the gravely ill attorney general, virtually the entire top leadership of the Justice Department is threatening to resign.



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The real reason behind poor CD sales: hint, it's not piracy

Does anyone really think that consumers could buy 800 million more DVDs, worth $10 billion or more, without cutting back on some other entertainment spending?



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Time to start again.

I've got four weeks till my next triathlon. Time to start kicking the training up a notch. I'm not as diligent about posting my work outs as Melanie is, but I'll try my best. So far for the weekend, I did a 5k run on Saturday, and a 7 mile bike followed by a 3 mile run on Sunday. Nothing but a dog wash for today. Tomorrow will be either a bike/run or possibly a swim.

All hail the king | Salon.com

Loyalty has always been the alpha and omega of George W. Bush's presidency. But all the forms of allegiance that have bound together his administration -- political, ideological and personal -- are being shredded, leaving only blind loyalty. Bush has surrounded himself with loyalists, who fervently



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Open Letter to Gonzales, From the ENTIRE Harvard Law class of 1982

This ad ran in the Washington Post today, it is from ALL of his classmates from the Harvard Law class of 1982. It chastises his reckless disregard for the constitution for the wire tapping, suspension of habeas corpus, and the recent politically motivated firings. Seriously, how can this guy still have a job? And how can American's sit by and not call for his removal. Ashcroft gave me the willies (come on you are really going to cover up a STATUE?!) but Gonzales seems only eager to please the White House. Having the Judaical branch this cozy with the White House is just begging for major improprieties to take place, and as if this White House needed any more abuse of power.



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Google Reader

I found a cool new tool to play around with when I was exploring some of the newer (to me) features of gmail. One such tool is Google Reader, a rss aggregate to goes out and fetches any new posts to sites you subscribe to. RSS stands for Really Simple Syndication and there are quite a few sites that have added it over the past several months. What you look for is the orange button on the left side of many address bars, or if you find the blue RSS button embedded on the sight. In a nutshell, RSS allows for sends out titles and or brief descriptions of any new posts or articles. Someone who has subscribed to a RSS feed from a sight can pull it up like a bookmark to quickly scan for any new post (often they will be highlighted or flagged) and serve has hot links.
The other cool thing is with google reader, I can mark articles that I thought were cool over in my new widget (Scott's shared stories). So keep an eye on that right side of the page.

Our Triathlon results.

I thought it would be fun to break down the results from our first ever triathlon. For the full spread you can take a look at the official results over here.

I'll start by breaking down the 5 sections of the race. There are only 3 legs to the race, but they provide time splits for the transition from one leg to the next. How this works is you have a microchip around your ankle, and there are timing pads you run across as you move from one leg into the next. Those pads will record your split time so you can see how you did in each individual event. The transition area is a centralized area where your bike and running gear is stored. When you finish the swim, you jump out of the pool, run down the sidewalk, over the timing pad (ending your swim time, and starting T1), and into the transition area. You then throw on you shoes and shirt, and grab you helmet and bike. You have to leave the transition area before you can jump on the bike and start the next leg. On the way out of the area, you cross the second timing pad (ending T1, and starting your bike). Once the bike section is complete, you run over the same pad from when you exited the area (end of bike, and start of T2) and bring your bike back to the same area as before. Then its off to the run, as you exit the the zone you cross the third pad (end of T2, start of the run). The final pad is crossed at the finish line.

Now that I have that all cleared up (clear as mud right?) I'll post our times in the following format:

• Event: (time) place in age group / place overall

Scott - Total in Age Group: 32 Total Overall: 267

• Swim: (6:01) 19th/146th
• T1: (2:30) 21st/193rd
• Bike: (47:33) 29th/237th
• T2: (0:58) 4th/28th
• Run: (30:16) 21st/184th
• Finish: (1:27:17) 26th/209th

Melanie - Total in Age Group: 13 Total Overall: 168

• Swim: (6:11) 8th/66th
• T1: (2:22) 7th/78th
• Bike: (51:02) 8th/118th
• T2: (1:22) 2nd/65th
• Run: (32:77) 5th/70th
• Finish: (1:33:26) 8th/88th

And then there was our friend Shana.

Shana -

• Swim: (4:12) 2nd
• T1: (1:20) 3rd
• Bike: (36:29) 3rd
• T2: (1:10) 21st
• Run: (25:17) 10th
• Finish: (1:08:27) 3rd

As for the reason I didn't specify Age group/Overall for Shana, that's because she got 3rd overall. It was very impressive. As for the future, well I can safely say this was a good benchmark for us, but by no means will this be the final results. Mel has already signed up for her next triathlon in two weeks, and I am scoping out the next triathlon that I can do. We meet our first goals, now its time to improve on them!

Digg This: 09-f9-11-02-9d-74-e3-5b-d8-41-56-c5-63-56-88-c0

Digg won't go down without a fight. Thanks Kev for changing your mind and amplifying the voices of many! Let freedom ring, or at least go out with a bang!



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The death of Digg?

As a firestorm rages, Kevin Rose, founder of Digg, responds. Faced with a cease and desist letter, the site admins pulled a story off the site. In response to this action, many in the Digg comunity have revolted, and have flooded the site with the very key that caused the letter to land on Digg's doorstep. Here is Kevin's post:

Today was an insane day. And as the founder of Digg, I just wanted to post my thoughts…
In building and shaping the site I’ve always tried to stay as hands on as possible. We’ve always given site moderation (digging/burying) power to the community. Occasionally we step in to remove stories that violate our terms of use (eg. linking to pornography, illegal downloads, racial hate sites, etc.). So today was a difficult day for us. We had to decide whether to remove stories containing a single code based on a cease and desist declaration. We had to make a call, and in our desire to avoid a scenario where Digg would be interrupted or shut down, we decided to comply and remove the stories with the code.
But now, after seeing hundreds of stories and reading thousands of comments, you’ve made it clear. You’d rather see Digg go down fighting than bow down to a bigger company. We hear you, and effective immediately we won’t delete stories or comments containing the code and will deal with whatever the consequences might be.
If we lose, then what the hell, at least we died trying.
Digg on,
Kevin

To the staff of Digg, I can only hope those who demanded your heads will turn that energy towards the bigger potential threat on the horizon. They said "give me liberty or give me death", the later part may be something folks will have to deal with. There is a reason people have to pay attention to letters like that, just ask Napster, Kazza, and countless torrent sites. Bravo Kevin, for stepping up to the plate and offering to take one for the team. Its just hope and pray Digg.com doesn't become a sacrificial lamb.

DIGG: What's Happening with HD-DVD Stories?

"I just wanted to explain what some of you have been noticing around some stories that have been submitted to Digg on the HD DVD encryption key being cracked."Holy flying moonbat monkey shit! This is the biggest snafu I have ever seen occuring real time online. Here is a bit of the background:Digg.com: a user driven solical content news site. Meaning, its a depository of stories submitted by its users, and promoted by its users. How it works - anybody can submit a story to the site, the population of digg is then able to vote on the story as cool/interesting or borring/already submitted/spam ect. As more and more people vote on a story, the site promotes it to the front page. Its kind of a grassroots approach to the buzz on the net.What happened: Recently, the code to unlocking the HD-DVD format from its encription was leaked to the net. With this code a person would be able to defeat the copy-protection, and have access the best quality images available to consumers to do what they wish. On the dark side of the coin, they could make copies of the disks, sell them, pirate them, make the unencripted files available online, ect ect. On the oposite side, the user could just be backing up a copy of their new disk to protect the content from scratches ect ect. That is the quick and skinny of it all. But the real interesting thing is what happened to the story that was submitted to digg.com with the code.The administrators removed the story, and banned the user (I have not had a chance to verify this). You see this story put digg in a tough spot. The culture of digg has always been about the user base, relying on them to drive the site. But once their users start posting intellectual material (as was the case with the code) they will be targeted by the angy IP holder. (See MPAA v. Napster). The backlash against the action the administrators took has been swift and furrious, as the digg users are submitting a deluge of stories with the same code.Since the site is near real time with its story promotion algarythms its been possible to witness the event online. I've never seen anything quite like it. I should be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Will the actions of its users draw digg into the crosshairs of an angry IP holder? Or will the actions of the administrators, in their action to protect the site, drive off its own lifeblood?I should also state that why this is such a big deal is that digg plays a large part on the promotion and buzz of stories across the entire web. Once something hits digg, a large number of people become aware of it, seeing as digg celebrated its 1 millionth user registration only a short time ago. -Crazy!



read more | digg story

Triathlon 1.1

Race Day!

The eve of the big day is upon Mel and I. We just got back from our pre-triathlon meeting and packet pick up and we inspected the course. It looks pretty good so far, I just wanted to post a few of my goals for tomorrow.

1) Complete the race in under 1 hour 30 min.
2) Pass more people than pass me.

Simple and straight forward, I'll post the results when I get them. Wish me good luck.

Bahamas Surprise

This one actually caught me off guard today. I had finished something last week that I had planned on posting here but I ran into some problems with it. I haven't had a chance to try and fix it until now, and low and behold I sat down to work on it, and it turns out its already fixed. So with out further ado, here is what I have been promising for awhile:

Running out of time

Well, the Triathlon is fast approaching, and I am hardly what I would consider well prepared. When I do get a chance to work out, I put in some good time, but its been finding time to work out around my work that has been rather tricky. Some of it, I will admit, is applying the proper motivation when I am on my days off, but the bigger issue has been working around my schedule. Case in point, I have not been training for the swimming section, and the reason why is the best time for me to do that, the pool is not available. I will just have to be creative about it, last two weeks of training and all, should be fun.

And as a side note, I have something I've been working on that is 95% finished, so look for it soon.

/sigh

So much work to be done...

This is a map of current state of teaching Evolution in classrooms. Its truly sad how this ties into the bigger picture of a lot of the problems with our society and its concept of what science really is.

Please read:

The following is not my post but it is from:
One Man's Blog
OneMansBlog.com is Copyright © 2006-2007 by John Pozadzides.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Since I found it via digg.com, I would just blog it from there, but for some reason my digg account and blogger are just not getting along quite the same ever since I switched over to the beta at blogger (now the standard). But, I truly feel this is something that everyone should know.

How I’d Hack Your Weak Passwords

Digg This! (1489 Diggs, 140 comments) • Save to del.icio.us (186 saves, tagged: security password hacking) • Technorati: 17 links to this item • Add to Technorati Favorites! • Google Bookmark This • Add to Yahoo MyWeb2 • Add a comment

Hello DIGG visitors! Thanks for stopping by. As you may have noticed, the server is under a little bit of strain at the moment. It might have something to do with the 5,000 visitors per hour that are stopping by. :-)

The page you are viewing is a static HTML document so that it can handle the load, but a lot of people are trying to click through to other pages on the site. (Thanks for your interest by the way!)

If you try to visit another article but get a Wordpress database error you may want to try reloading it a few times. Or, if I may suggest... if you'll open the article in another window and check on it in a few hours the server should catch up and you can refresh and read the page later. Thanks again!!!

User LoginIf you invited me to try and crack your password, you know the one that you use over and over for like every web page you visit, how many guesses would it take before I got it?

Let’s see… here is my top 10 list. I can obtain most of this information much easier than you think, then I might just be able to get into your e-mail, computer, or online banking. After all, if I get into one I’ll probably get into all of them.

1. Your partner, child, or pet’s name, possibly followed by a 0 or 1 (because they’re always making you use a number, aren’t they?)
2. The last 4 digits of your social security number.
3. 123 or 1234 or 123456.
4. “password”
5. Your city, or college, football team name.
6. Date of birth - yours, your partner’s or your child’s.
7. “god”
8. “letmein”
9. “money”
10. “love”

Statistically speaking that should probably cover about 20% of you. But don’t worry. If I didn’t get it yet it will probably only take a few more minutes before I do…

Hackers, and I’m not talking about the ethical kind, have developed a whole range of tools to get at your personal data. And the main impediment standing between your information remaining safe, or leaking out, is the password you choose. (Ironically, the best protection people have is usually the one they take least seriously.)

One of the simplest ways to gain access to your information is through the use of a Brute Force Attack. This is accomplished when a hacker uses a specially written piece of software to attempt to log into a site using your credentials. Insecure.org has a list of the Top 10 FREE Password Crackers right here.

So, how would one use this process to actually breach your personal security? Simple. Follow my logic:

* You probably use the same password for lots of stuff right?
* Some sites you access such as your Bank or work VPN probably have pretty decent security, so I’m not going to attack them.
* However, other sites like the Hallmark e-mail greeting cards site, an online forum you frequent, or an e-commerce site you’ve shopped at might not be as well prepared. So those are the ones I’d work on.
* So, all we have to do now is unleash Brutus, wwwhack, or THC Hydra on their server with instructions to try say 10,000 (or 100,000 - whatever makes you happy) different usernames and passwords as fast as possible.
* Once we’ve got several login+password pairings we can then go back and test them on targeted sites.
* But wait… How do I know which bank you use and what your login ID is for the sites you frequent? All those cookies are simply stored, unencrypted and nicely named, in your Web browser’s cache. (Read this post to remedy that problem.)

And how fast could this be done? Well, that depends on three main things, the length and complexity of your password, the speed of the hacker’s computer, and the speed of the hacker’s Internet connection.

Assuming the hacker has a reasonably fast connection and PC here is an estimate of the amount of time it would take to generate every possible combination of passwords for a given number of characters. After generating the list it’s just a matter of time before the computer runs through all the possibilities - or gets shut down trying.

Pay particular attention to the difference between using only lowercase characters and using all possible characters (uppercase, lowercase, and special characters - like @#$%^&*). Adding just one capital letter and one asterisk would change the processing time for an 8 character password from 2.4 days to 2.1 centuries.

Password Length - All Characters - Only Lowercase

• 3 characters - 0.86 seconds - 0.02 seconds
• 4 characters - 1.36 minutes - 046 seconds
• 5 characters - 2.15 hours - 11.9 seconds
• 6 characters - 8.51 days - 5.15 minutes
  
• 7 characters - 2.21 years - 2.23 hours
• 8 characters - 2.23 hours - 2.42 days
• 9 characters - 20 millennia - 2.07 months
• 10 characters - 1,899 millennia - 4.48 years
• 11 characters - 180,365 millennia - 1.16 centuries
• 12 characters - 17,184,705 millennia - 3.03 millennia
• 13 characters - 1,627,797,068 millennia - 78.7 millennia
• 14 characters - 154,640,721,434 millennia - 2,046 millennia

Remember, these are just for an average computer, and these assume you aren’t using any word in the dictionary. If Google put their computer to work on it they’d finish about 1,000 times faster.

Now, I could go on for hours and hours more about all sorts of ways to compromise your security and generally make your life miserable - but 95% of those methods begin with compromising your weak password. So, why not just protect yourself from the start and sleep better at night?

Believe me, I understand the need to choose passwords that are memorable. But if you’re going to do that how about using something that no one is ever going to guess AND doesn’t contain any common word or phrase in it.

Here are some password tips:

1. Randomly substitute numbers for letters that look similar. The letter ‘o’ becomes the number ‘0′, or even better an ‘@’ or ‘*’. (i.e. - m0d3ltf0rd… like modelTford)
2. Randomly throw in capital letters (i.e. - Mod3lTF0rd)
3. Think of something you were attached to when you were younger, but DON’T CHOOSE A PERSON’S NAME! Every name plus every word in the dictionary will fail under a simple brute force attack.
4. Maybe a place you loved, or a specific car, an attraction from a vacation, or a favorite restaurant?
5. You really need to have different username / password combinations for everything. Remember, the technique is to break into anything you access just to figure out your standard password, then compromise everything else. This doesn’t work if you don’t use the same password everywhere.
6. Since it can be difficult to remember a ton of passwords, I recommend using Roboform. It will store all of your passwords in an encrypted format and allow you to use just one master password to access all of them. It will also automatically fill in forms on Web pages, and you can even get versions that allow you to take your password list with you on your PDA, phone or a USB key.
7. Once you’ve thought of a password, try Microsoft’s password strength tester to find out how secure it is.

Another thing to keep in mind is that some of the passwords you think matter least actually matter most. For example, some people think that the password to their e-mail box isn’t important because “I don’t get anything sensitive there.” Well, that e-mail box is probably connected to your online banking account. If I can compromise it then I can log into the Bank’s Web site and tell it I’ve forgotten my password to have it e-mailed to me. Now, what were you saying about it not being important?

Often times people also reason that all of their passwords and logins are stored on their computer at home, which is save behind a router or firewall device. Of course, they’ve never bothered to change the default password on that device, so someone could drive up and park near the house, use a laptop to breach the wireless network and then try passwords from this list until they gain control of your network - after which time they will own you!

Now I realize that every day we encounter people who over-exagerate points in order to move us to action, but trust me this is not one of those times. There are 50 other ways you can be compromised and punished for using weak passwords that I haven’t even mentioned.

I also realize that most people just don’t care about all this until it’s too late and they’ve learned a very hard lesson. But why don’t you do me, and yourself, a favor and take a little action to strengthen your passwords and let me know that all the time I spent on this article wasn’t completely in vain.

Please, be safe. It’s a jungle out there.

Back from the Bahamas

Its never easy to leave, but we had a wonderful time down in Abaco. Compared to our last trip down to the Bahamas, this trip was much more low key. Last year we went down to Treasure Cay with Melanie's folks and her brother, Andrew. It was their first trip to the Bahamas, so we spent a lot of the trip exploring the island. This time, Mel and I simply kicked back and relaxed. There were a few days of exploring, but it wasn't off to the typical tourist spots. My Dad took Mel and I out for her first bonefishing experience. Several months ago, my Dad picked up a new bonefish skiff so he could enjoy his favorite sport more often. Bonefishing is a unique sport spent out on the flats in the Bahamas. The flats are sections of the ocean where during low tide the water level drops to around a foot deep. When the water drops like this, the bonefish swim up to hunt for crabs and other food. The tricky part is the flats are by no means small sections of land, they can stretch for several hundred yard and there is no particular pattern to where the bonefish will be. In a large part, bonefishing is much more like hunting than fishing, because you really have to try and track them down. I'll be posting some of our trips out to the flats later when I have a chance.
The rest of the trip was spent on the beach and enjoying the company of my parents. By the time we arrived, they had already spent a month down in the Bahamas and loving every moment of it. I have a strong feeling that from now on, I will be hard pressed to locate my parents anywhere near Montana during January from now on. They will be leaving on this upcoming Tuesday to travel up the east coast and visit with friend for a few weeks, and will then return to Treasure Cay for a few week more after that. Our return trip from the Bahamas always seems to make it that much harder to leave, and this last time was no exception. Along with a two and a half hour delayed flight from the island, our bags managed to miss the flight to Florida. From experience, we have learned that its best to arrive a day earlier before traveling to the Bahamas, and fly out a day later once you return. We had prepared for the delays both going to and coming from the island, but the missing bag was a curve ball. After we cleared immigration, we went down stairs to claim our bag and move through customs. That is when we discovered our bag, along with several others from the flight, had not made it over. That was a little upsetting, but they told us to call the 800 number on our ticket jacket. After fifteen minutes on hold, Melanie finally got in touch with someone on the phone. By this point we were already in the shuttle in transit to our hotel. That is when we found out that claims had to be made in person at the airport, and could not be taken over the phone. So we had the distinct pleasure of traveling back to the airport to a different terminal to place our claim. From there on out things did start to pick up, but it really was an unwanted headache. They did find out bag, and it was dropped of around five hours after we got home. Well, I should finish this off for now, but I will post a few more details about the trip later. Until then, cheers!

W4: Pluses and Minuses

Decided to steal a page from my wife, and submit a quit posting while we wait for our flight. Just want to thank Ft. Lauderdale Airport for having the common decency of providing free WiFi. Seriously, does anyone ever pay for WiFi at other airports unless you absolutely have to, and I for one have never access that bad. But, back to the heart of things.
This past week of training had its ups and downs, I had a good week based of the intensity of the work outs I completed, but I did poorly based off how many days I worked out. I will have to improve on that. I started the week of with a 5k run, which I finished in just over 30 min, which is good, but I will need to shave some more time off that. The big work out came this past Thursday, when I decided to give a litmus test to my progress so far. I started out with a 10 mile bike ride, that I finished in around 45 minutes. I basically rode a modified circuit and after I returned back to the house I kicked off the running section of my workout. I grabbed Kiera, and 5 minutes after finishing my bike ride I was back on the road for a 3 mile run. I clocked in at 30 minutes for that run, and I was feeling the burn after that work out.
This next week will be interesting to see how Melanie and I will be able to adjust our training to a new environment. But, all and all it should be pretty fun, besides you really can't complain about running on the beach. That's all for now.

W3: Condition Sore

After three weeks of training, I'm starting to feel it, and I am sore. I didn't push myself as hard as I would have liked, I probably should have gone out on some of the days I took off, but I still have time to make up for that. As payback for that slacking, I may have over done it today. I started off with a bike ride down to the store to pick up some breakfast supplies. That would have been a moderate workout for the day, but I wasn't finished quite yet. Later in the afternoon Mel convinced me to head out with her for a run with Kiera. We did a 3.2 mile run, after which my body let me know it wasn't too happy with me. But this will pass, and I better get used to it if I want to be in proper shape for when the triathlon rolls around.

Night out for Hockey

Second row! Not too shabby.

Week two in the bag

Second week of training, and things are going well. I've been doing mainly running for the past couple of weeks, but soon I will branch out to more training with the swimming and bike sections of the triathlon. Mel has been spending most of her time in the pool which has served her very well since it has helped a lot with the bike and running by building up her core strength. I did jump on a stationary bike earlier this week, and even though my endurance is up from the running, the muscle groups did not see that bike coming. The swimming part will be the toughest part for me to fit into my schedule, but I am sure I can get creative with that. Another week down, time to bump up the intensity.

Week one down.

If you happen to read Melanie's blog (which she has been more active with lately) you may already know that we both signed up for our first triathlon. As for those of you who did not know that, well.. now you do.
It was an idea that was kind of tossed out there one night when we were having a night on the town with friends. It was kind of one of those things where you look at it and say "Sure, why not.". Now its not a full triathlon, for those of you who are thinking we are heading out to Hawaii or something. Rather its a sprint marathon, which is a 300 meter swim, 20k bike, and 5k run. I got a bit of a late start on things, but I just finished my first week of training. It feels good, but we'll see how my attitude changes when we get closer to the actual race. I'll post more updates as I go. But for now,I've got to go hit the showers.. Mel and I are going out for an Italian dinner tonight.

Too funny

December sure has gone by quickly

Hello all,

I have to start by apologizing about the lack of updates this month, it has been unusual in the truest form. There have been quite a few curve balls thrown at me this month, but I am happy to report I'm still moving along nicely. I'll flesh out the details on another post but I wanted to fill in some details from last night.

Melanie and I had been invited out by Shana (one of Melanie's fellow Doc students) to go to the Carolina Hurricane's game against the New York Islanders. The idea was to try and score some of the student discount tickets which only go on sale the day of, and must be purchased at the RBC center. The only tickets we were able to secure were up in the 300's. We made the trek upstairs to find our seats when we were approached by one of the Storm Squad (Hurricane Cheerleaders). She wanted to know if we would be interested in playing some trivia for a chance at some better seats. Melanie was immediately nominated by Shana and I. So, just before the National Anthem, we went back downstairs to meet for the event. Mel was taken down to one of the corner booths on the ice to play the "Sub Club" sponsored by Subway for the new seats. Shana and I slipped down with Melanie as she walked to the booth and found a nice pair of seats about 18 seats up to watch the action. The game was that they would put up a question on the Jumbotron and the announcer would read it off until one of the players grabbed the Stormy hat (Hurricane's mascot) from the table. At that time the question would disappear and the announcer would stop reading and wait for the answer. It turns out that the game didn't quite play out like that, they did take the question down and the announcer did stop "reading" it, but he ended up repeating it before he asked the question. Melanie's competitor made for the hat first and guessed correctly. She did kick her self a little bit, since the question was true false, so a guess would have been just fine, if you were wrong the tickets just went to the other player. She had also been combing her mind with facts and figures about last season and players names, when the question turned out to be "True or False, the Hurricanes were leading after the 1st period in their last game?". Even if she didn't win, she got to be on the Jumbotron, get a shot at some better seats, and best of all, had the best seat in the entire house when the Hurricanes scored their first goal. Not much else after that, just enjoyed watching the Canes finish off with a 5-1 victory with out too much sweat.

What I was thankful for

Wii's, Skis, and other elements..

Hi Ho everyone,

Been a busy, crazy, and fun couple of weeks.. I'll do my best to break it down for you. I guess its best to start back on the weekend before Thanksgiving. Prior to that date I had been receiving a few calls from my good friend Owen out in LA. Owen always has a good story or two that primarily cause me to kick myself and wonder why it was that I'm on the opposite coast of where I should be... but I can get into that later. The latest and greatest story had been about his exploits with a Nintendo Wii, which thanks to his job he had been playing with for a week prior to its release to the general public. I had been thinking about picking up a new console, but after the sticker shock of the PS3, I placed myself squarely in the camp of sitting this cycle out, or at least that was what I thought. Owen, who just happens to be a non-gamer, had nothing but astounding praise for the Wii, and of course I caved and decided that a Wii would be quite a bit of fun for Thanksgiving and the annual Mario Cart rally my in-laws and I get into. Hence, after work on Sunday morning, I drove out the the local Target and kept my fingers crossed for that I might have a shot at one of the 24 units the store would have for sale at 8:00 am. I rolled into the parking lot at 6:30 am and walked up to a smattering of bundled chairs and tents.



It was a chilly 30-40 degrees out, so I zipped up my coat and started my wait. Only and hour until the employees would come out and produce the desired vouchers. There were quite a few people there, so the 24 units may have already been spoken for, any hope I had of securing one would be slim in deed. Around 15 minutes after I arrived, another camper showed up, I nodded as they walked up and he surveyed the line for a place to walk up to. From the depths of one particular hooded camper asked "Are you here for a Wii?". When the fellow nodded, a reply of "Oh I'm sorry, you aren't going to get one. They only have 24, and there are 24 of us here.". Slightly stunned, he nodded "Oh, OK then" and turned back to his car. I had not received the same greeting, so I thought that just maybe I was in that 24th slot, but realistically I also made mental note that I would probably be left out on that number.

A short time later, that question was answered for me. The same bundled Co-ED gave me a confused look and asked "Have you been here all night?" I responded that I had arrived around 35 minutes ago, "Oh, sorry, but your are not going to get a Wii, there are already 24 people here."

"That's ok, I will wait it out"

"Oh... Well, if you want we might be able to work something out."

"What's that?"

"Well, we are buying two Wii's, I would be willing to sell you the other for $600"

For those of you whom are not aware, the Wii is priced at $250, which is exactly the amount I am paying for one, not one cent more. After shooting that idea down, the rest of the line turned back to itself and counted down the remaining hour. As was expected, I did turn out to be #25, and thus my shot of obtaining a Wii on launch day was not looking good. I did have one other opportunity, since one kid that had previously planned on not buying a Wii had been talked into taking a ticket anyway. After the 24th voucher had been handed out, and I had started walking away, the kid ran up and tried to sell me his. As stated before, I am not paying more than $250, which included paying additional for someone's ticket. He only ended up getting $50 for it, which was payed for by the person in front of me. I'm glad that the price of the Wii is not going to really make the $300 price tag he paid a very profitable one. But, eventually I will find a way to get one, and if that is before the holidays or after it doesn't really matter. Don't worry though, as the week progressed from there it did get a lot better, more on that later.

Borat

Last night Mel and I went out to see Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan. I was familiar with the character from HBO's "Da Ali G Show". What I was not prepared for was how hard I would laugh.

Straight to the point, this movie will go WAY beyond your comfort zone, but the funny thing is you will probably be laughing too hard to care. That said, I can not stress more that this movie must be seen to believe it. I knew about the gorilla style comedy Sacha Baron Cohen, since I had seen some of the interviews he had done as Ali G, another Borat like character from his show, only done in the vein of a hip-hop culture. With that in mind, I was expecting a few good laughs, but since Borat seemed more in line with Jonny Knoxville's Jackass, I was not expecting too much.

Like a midnight train with two tones of bricks this movie knocked me out of the park. I am still getting a good laugh 24 hours later. This is the first movie I have ever called people on to make sure they go see it. So folks, on your next free night, I really want you to go see Borat. Skip the popcorn, you would just end up loosing most of it. I would normally say to sit down, buckle up, and hold on for a movie like this but in this case, leave the seatbelt off, being a part of the car crash that is about to occur is just one thing you can't afford to miss in this movie.

What a night.

Mood: Headed to bed (@,@)

Webb - Votes are still being counted, 8 precincts left to count, 6 of which the Webb camp fell confidant that they are pro-Webb precincts. By which they look to increase his 7-11k vote lead. The Secretary of State will go out this morning to verify the votes took place, and then provisional votes will be counted, which are also felt to be in good standing with the Webb camp.

GOVERNOR - The Dems have picked up 6 states, to bring it to 28 v. the GOP 20.

Montana is still waiting, I will catch it when I get up.

Lieberman in the drivers seat?

Mood: Tired

With Montana in the balance, Lieberman becomes a very important person. With the Dems looking more and more likely to get 6 seats, Lieberman has the ability to rock that boat, or bring it safely into the harbor. I would go into more details, but for now, keep an eye on him, the GOP wants him to stay independent, and Dems would welcome him back into the fold, which would come at a price. Bringing it down to the wire here, and I can't wait!

Montana DON'T FAIL ME NOW!

Mood - Ecstatic!

Hailing from Bozeman Montana myself, I am stunned that it will play such a large part in this years election. I was a bit worried, but I know that regardless of how things ultimately turn out, they are much much better than I had thought they would be. With this large turn-over of power is going to weigh greatly on what direction we head as a nation. Its been a rough set of years to see the polarization of this nation used against each other. We are standing at a crossroad, and I for one believe that the future has brightened quite a bit. For me this is not about retribution, I do not want to rub this in, but what I do want is for this country to come together. I really think we have a chance know. Looking back, both Regan and Clinton had to adjust in order to work with the new political landscape, now it is Bush's turn. I really hope he takes this message to heart, and sets things aside to come back to where the rest of the country lives, and does not try to dig in his heels.

So now we wait, and as I sit here surrounded by a sleeping wife, a sleeping dog, and well a wired cat, but it just seems fitting. Had a lot of fun, and for those who popped in to join me, I appreciate that. Its a new dawn in American politics, 30 min left, Yellowstone County a must win for Conrad. Unbelievable!!

Hmmm, two self proclaimed winners

First with Webb, now McCaskill have come out before their competitors and claimed the victory. Traditionally, the looser would make the call to the winner to congratulate the them, head out to offer the concession speech. Not sure where this went to, but now it seems that we've gone for winner take all.

But this does leave us in and interesting completion to our night here, as goes Montana, so the country.

Oh yeah, McCaskill is the winner! This just in. This is CRAZY!!

Then there was two.

Montana has Tester 115,182 @51% with 58% reporting, so its looking good. Missouri has McCaskill rounding the corner and taking the lead: 852,065 @49%, with 84% of precincts reporting. Here is a breakdown of what else the nation voted on:

AZ - English as Official Language - Yes
AZ - Million Dollar Voter reward - No
AZ - Minimum Wage increase - Yes
CA - Fund Alternative Energy - No
MO - Raise Minimum wage - Yes
CO - Ban Gay Marriage - Yes
ID - Ban Same-Sex Marriage - Yes
NV - Raise Minimum wage - Yes
OH - Raise Minimum wage - Yes
SC - Ban Same-Sex Marriage - Yes
TN - Ban Same-Sex Marriage - Yes
VA - Ban Same-Sex Marriage - Yes
WI - Ban Same-Sex Marriage - Yes
CO - Legalize Marijuana - No

2000 revisited

Mood: Excited

We are on the eve of a very interesting event. The balance of power in the Senate may not be known for a few weeks, here is how it would work. Montana and MO need to continue the trend to the DEMS, that would leave the balance hanging on VA, which has headed to bed, with a recount on the way. Just as was the case in FL back in 2000, it moves to a much larger issue. Montana has been leading toward Tester all night, MO is switching places quite a bit. The night is young for sure.

Corker takes TN

Mood: Focused

Tennessee looks to have tipped over to Corker, which would lead for all three Senate races to fall to Dems. Tough to pull off, but its possible. VA as stated before is going to stretch into extra innings, where they will pick up the recount tomorrow. 2265 vote difference to the advantage of Webb - the State will pick up the tab on that recount.

Back in a bit.

12:30

Mood: Digging it!


U.S. Senate Virginia
Candidate Votes % of votes
Jim Webb (DEM) 1,143,144 49%
George Allen (REP)* 1,140,879 49%
99% of precincts reporting

U.S. Senate Tennessee
Candidate Votes % of votes
Bob Corker (REP) 870,606 51%
Harold Ford (DEM) 812,506 48%
91% of precincts reporting

U.S. Senate MISSOURI
Candidate Votes % of votes
Jim Talent (REP)* 669,292 50%
Claire McCaskill (DEM) 612,233 46%
64% of precincts reporting

U.S. Senate Montana
Candidate Votes % of votes
Jon Tester (DEM) 63,698 54%
Conrad Burns (REP)* 51,745 44%
25% of precincts reporting

The train continues with picking up a lot of Gov. positions, that will change the political landscape as well. I have to say I am going to be very very interested in what Bush's next move is. I'll be the first to admit it, I can't stand the guy, but if he can take the hint and move to the middle it would be the first correct step in a very long line of wrong steps.

12:00

Mood: Pleased

Had the chance to go over some the state laws, and I was happy to see South Dakota vote down the most restrictive Abortion ban, Montana is looking to increase minimum wage. Lots of stuff to go over, be back in a few.

11:45

Mood: Excited

Dems will walk away with the first female Speaker, a fresh slate to work with, and a lot of potential for the next two years. This is also a big spotlight that has switched over to give them a voice. So, now that they have it, what are they going to say. Big stakes that will shake things up for the '08 Presidential election. In the Senate, I'm still wait for Harris to concede. VA race also has a ton of legs left, with Webb closing the gap, its close!!!

11:25

Mood: Very happy

House seats continue to turn as Dems get closer to breaking into the 30+ seats, and continue to apply pressure on the Senate. They have taken a different path than the one taken by the GOP when control was first turned over, drawing from the middle instead of turning to the base. Va will not be decided until tomorrow as a recount is sure to be announced. Fun fun.

10:58

Mood: Feeling good.

Projection of House control going over to the Dems is out there now. That makes me happy. The Senate, on the other hand is slipping through the Dem's grasp, in what I predict will be a pick up of 4 of the needed 7. But that is OK with me, the message of change is what I am most interested in, and from the looks of it, the rest of America is leaning that way too. My final numbers: Senate - GOP Hold on with 2-3 seats House - DEM pick up 20-26 for change of power.

10:30 pm

Mood: Back to optimistic

Not too happy about Orin Hatch's projected win, heck any one that is reading this blog or any website should feel the same, but that's in Utah, and well.. its Utah. Tenn and Va will be the the nail that closes the door on a Senate change, Montana and MO will be a toss up. If Dems are only able to pry one of the four away, Montana would be nice, but that's a personal issue.

And there is a confirmed issue that has come up with an electronic voting machine, one got into a bar fight.

Sen. Rick Santorum, R.-Pa., concedes to Democrat Bob Casey

Mood: Happy

One of the few races I was watching, granted several are expected wins, but its nice to see.

9:50

Mood: optimistic

Va continues to be THE tight race right now. I'm guessing we probably will not have a winner there till tomorrow.

9:15 - off to the right start

Starting numbers: Senate - +13 Rep House: 0

Long night ahead, but I have faith
^^

Get out there and VOTE!

I'll be posting my own views later on, but for now here is the final posting from the Power poster from Lewis and Clark:

As we live through another day of voting in America, I, like many of you, think back on other elections and highs and lows. For lows I personally look back to 2000 where we left Capitol Hill in the middle of the night not knowing the outcome of the presidential contest, after having celebrated with great jubilation earlier in the night as Gore picked up the three states everybody know were the ones to put him on the glidepath to victory, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida. I also look back 12 years ago to the biggest political bloodbath I have witnessed in my nearly two decades in Washington, the night when the Republicans had a net gain of 8 seats in the Senate to take control and a whopping net gain of 52 seats in the House to take control and end 40 years of Democratic rule of that body. Our own victory of Oregon 3 in the Wyden office never in question that election, I spent most of that election night upstairs in the office of Rep. Long from Indiana where I counted most every person on that staff as a friend dating back to my days working for Jontz in the Indiana delegation. They lost badly and lost their jobs. They took it pretty well, even as we had to listen to the cheers coming from Republican offices on the floor every time a new election result was announced. When an election like that happens, not only do all the staffs of the losing Members lose their jobs (they have two months until the change officially happens as mandated under the Constitution on January 3), but if majority control changes, that flips all the committees as well. Traditionally the majority party gets 2/3 of the committee staff hires and the minority gets 1/3 of the hires in their own minority office for each committee. In 1994 because so many members lost and both chambers flipped, thousands upon thousands of jobs turned over.
As I walked through the Longworth House Office Building that night, amidst the
cheers coming from the Republican offices, there were Democratic staff hugging and crying, and there were even a few people in the fetal position against hallway walls crying.

As I think back to happier elections and those highs, I think of 1992 and being in Ron’s House office in the Rayburn House Office Building as the Democratic majorities in Congress grew and Bill Clinton knocked Daddy Bush out of the presidency. At the moment that Clinton secured the electoral votes necessary to win the presidency and the networks announced him as the winner, a woman came out of her office down the hall from ours and let out a huge “Bush is a loser!!!!” to which all the Democratic offices began to cheer. Later that night we joined Democrats from all over the nation’s capital in driving in circles around the White House honking horns so that all the Bush staff could hear us. We ended the night a few blocks away at the Capital Hilton where the Clinton/Gore Washington party was being held and had such numbers that 16th Street had to be closed as the crowd had overflowed from the hotel out on the street in celebration. I also think of the best election night I’ve ever personally been involved with when we came from behind and Ron won election to the Senate in 1996 by 1 percent, the culmination of what Ron and I have both described as the most arduous thing we’ve ever been through in our lives. The celebration went through the night and I only got sleep between 4 and 6am when my phone rang with our press secretary calling me to work on Ron’s airplane victory thank you tour of the state, which was to begin at 10am that morning.
Her first words through the phone were “Can you believe that we won???!!!!!”
The night before she had chastised me for holding out any hope of victory by saying to me, “You don’t get outspent by $2 million and win an election Bruce.” In the following days of taking down the campaign office that had been our home for months, 7 days a week, 18 hours a day, as a boombox blasted music, campaign staff just walking past each other would randomly hug such was the lingering feeling of euphoria of that victory. We had an all night staff victory celebration in Portland two night later.

Politics is a rough business and it’s a business with clear winners and losers. People may often say that everybody in politics is nuts and/or corrupt, and they may say that there are no differences between the parties, but that’s not true and as so many of you know through incredible personal experiences, it does matter who wins. The very lives of our fellow Americans depends on who wins. No matter what your party or your philosophy, it can’t be denied that the decisions made here in Washington determine life and death for our wonderful and incredible troops, it determines the quality of health care and education for millions, it determines how much our paycheck goes to taxes and what that money is used for, and it determines the kinds of roads we drive on or the ease with which we can fly, just to name a few major ways the outcome of any election impacts us. So today, people on both sides who believe they are right about the best courses for America to follow are on edge. Last night on CNN, David Gergen and James Carville both agreed in a bi-partisan way that heading in to tonight Democrats have to be nervous that as the races in some places have gotten tighter, they could see their chances slip away, but that at the same time Republicans have to be downright terrified that it could be a bloodbath that approaches the numbers of 1994.

In the final analysis of the final polling tracks done in to yesterday, the following is the final verdict on what is to transpire from the consultants’ professional viewpoint:

Senate:
All Democratic incumbents or Democratic held seats In the Senate will stay Democratic. Senators Santorum and DeWine will lose by wide margins to Casey and Brown in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Senator Chafee will also lose in Rhode Island to Whitehouse but by a closer margin. Though it will be the closest of races, the conventional prediction based on polling numbers is that Senator Allen will lose narrowly to Webb in Virginia and that in the second closest race, Senator Talent will lose to McCaskill in MO. Senator Burns will lose by a fairly close but not a narrow margin to Tester in Montana. All other
Republican incumbents or Republican held seats will be maintained including the TN seat where Corker will beat Ford and out in AZ where Senator Kyl will be re-elected to hold those seats in Republican hands. However, that will be the net gain of six seats that the Democrats need to take 51-49 control of the Senate.

House:
Democrats will have a net gain of about 35 seats to take control of the House. The only two Democrats who might lose are in Georgia where two of that state’s House seats could flip to the Republicans.

This is the prediction of the pollsters but now we have to see what the reality is tonight. So far voter turnout is light, as in most mid-term elections. Normally a light turnout would be of great concern to Democrats because it’s a proven fact in many states that higher turnout helps Democratic candidates because that means that the electorate is made up of more than the voters who most reliably turn out to vote—motivated social conservatives and higher SES Republicans who will vote in election after election. We all know that a lot of times, Democrats need to be led to the polls by the hand with flowers being thrown in front and behind while flute music is playing. However, this particular election has long indicated that it was going to be a depressed Republican electorate not turning out so it is truly tough to read in to what the light turnout so far today means. It might benefit the Democrats. I live in a very affluent and Republican precinct in western Fairfax County where the average home sells for $2-3 million and the average townhouse sells for $500,000. Though Fairfax County as a whole has begun voting suburban Democratic majorities very reliably, my particular precinct is Allen territory. There was nobody at my precinct when I voted this morning. I walked right in and voted. It’s tough to read this.

Additionally, weather can play a huge factor in turnout. Democrats never like to hear of snow or rain because generally speaking, bad weather causes Democrats to stay home while Republicans are more often apt to vote no matter what the weather is. It’s raining in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Tennessee, and later Maryland today. If this weather causes Dems to stay home, and it could reduce turnout by as much as 3 percent, then some of these Senate battles could be tipped. The other big factor of course is voter problems. Electronic voting problems are already being reported in Ohio and Indiana.

Tonight if you’re watching election coverage, it will be known early on how things are looking. The PA, RI, and OH Senate race returns will come in early in the evening as will returns from Republican held House seats which are supposed to flip in NH, CT, OH, IN, and PA. If any of those returns has a surprise in them such as the Republican incumbent winning re-election or the margin of Democratic victory not being what was forecast in a place like the OH or PA Senate races, then it could be a big turnaround night for the Republicans where they hold off the Democratic challenge this year. If on the other hand all those early announced races in those three Senate seats and those House races go as the polls have predicted, then it will likely be the kind of Democratic night that has been forecast. Polls in Virginia close early, at 7pm Eastern. That Senate race will probably be too close to call for hours and as you’ve seen in the numbers, control of the Senate could come down to a few votes in Virginia. If Allen wins in Virginia, it’s lights out for a Democratic takeover of the Senate. End of story. The Rs will maintain control. As things head west tonight, MO in the Central Time Zone will be crucial as will Montana in the Mountain Time Zone. If either Burns or Talent wins re-election to the Senate in those two states, it’s lights out for Democratic control of the Senate. Little change is expected on the West Coast in either the Senate or the House so control of Congress should be known from the Mountain Time Zone with the Senate race in Montana and House races that are supposed to flip from R to D in Colorado. Most of those polls close at 10pm Eastern.

A number of you have asked me what a Democratic majority in either house of Congress will really mean so let me just toss this out here. On legislation, the Democrats will not have veto proof majorities in either house even if they have control. Therefore no major Democratic led policy changes can be expected during the final two years of the Bush Presidency. On the other hand, Bush would in no way be able to push through any of his remaining agenda items including making his tax cuts permanent instead of having them set to expire between 2010 and 2012. What would occur would generally be legislative gridlock unless Bush makes a concerted attempt to build a legacy through bi-partisan compromise aimed at getting through various laws with his stamp on them but with major elements of Democratic input. Mostly though, gridlock would be viewed as a Democratic victory in this climate because “stopping Bush” from doing anything more during his final two years in office would be considered a major plus by Dems. The other thing that the Ds would do is to potentially pass bills which highlight Democratic priorities and either force Bush to veto them, thereby gaining ammunition for the 2008 races, or force Bush to accept modified versions of them and claim that only by having Democrats in Congress were such outcomes possible—and use that in the 2008 races. Issues that can be expected on this front will include education and health care. If the Ds have both houses of Congress that task becomes easier because the legislation from both chambers would be pretty close to the same version and could serve as a clear distinction with Bush. If on the other hand the Ds control just the House, then there will have to be compromise with the Senate first before anything could be sent to Bush and that would make the task of a clearly defined separate agenda from Bush hard to highlight because the bills would have been watered down some in conference committee. On the oversight and investigative front, I would not expect Ds to get overzealous with going after Bush lest it make them look punitive and petty ahead of the big year of 2008. However, I would expect them to conduct aggressive oversight on such things as the Bush post-911 domestic surveillance program, the conduct of the occupation of Iraq and the intelligence that led up to the invasion, as well as a number of other things. A huge outcome would be that the Ds in Congress and Bush would sit down to examine the future of the Iraq occupation and figure out a new course of action. Given the polling, if they win a majority, the Ds will view this as the mandate they were elected to take care of more than any other issue—that of changing the situation in Iraq for the US military. If the Rs maintain control of both houses it will be by vary narrow margins, such as 50-50 in the Senate and by a small handful of seats in the House. That would also lead to legislative gridlock as the Ds will have enough numbers to block just about anything Bush and the Rs in Congress want to get done. So bottom line, no matter the outcome tonight, don’t expect a lot of production from the next Congress on legislation but do expect a lot of highlighting of differences to occur with Bush on issues to set everything up for 2008, do expect a major push to stop Bush in his tracks from accomplishing any more of his agenda items no matter which party is in control, and do expect if the Ds have at least one chamber for there to be big efforts at oversight and an effort to change the approach in Iraq as well as change the approach on issues such as civil liberties, all the while blocking any extension of the Bush tax cuts so that revenues can increase to the government at the end of the decade in an effort to get the budget to stop bleeding red ink and to be able to pay for things both domestically and for things that folks like the Army Chief of Staff can’t even get money for now because the government is so broke.

Best regards.

Polling update v - 5 days left!

Get the coffee started Dylan, I'm sure its only going to get more interesting from here on out. Latest and greatest:

Greetings,

Here’s a quick rundown on the latest polling numbers gleaned from various daily tracking polls and stand alone polls.


Senate:

In VA, Webb maintains a small lead over Sen. Allen of 1-2 points for a D Pickup.

In NJ, Sen. Menendez is now leading by double digits over Kean for a D Hold meaning no D Senate seats are in jeopardy currently.

In MT, Sen. Burns, the ever-dogged campaigner, continues his climb against Tester and has now closed to within 1-2 points, though Tester still leads and the Burns Re-Elect number continues to have pollsters saying this is a D Pickup. However, this race is now clearly in the upper most tier of competitive races to determine control of the Senate given the steady climb by Burns back in to this race.

In PA, Casey still leads Sen. Santorum by 8-12 points for a D Pickup.

In TN, Corker still leads Ford by as much as 10 points for an R Hold of the
Frist seat.

In OH, Brown maintains a lead over Sen. DeWine of 7-8 points for a D Pickup

In RI, Whitehouse has a double digit lead now over Sen. Chaffee for a D Pickup.

In MO, McCaskill has pulled ahead of Sen. Talent by 1-3 points depending on the poll for a D Pickup.


If the election were held today, current polling indicates that the Democrats would have a net gain of 6 seats in the Senate, for a 51-49 majority. In order for this to be achieved on Tuesday, McCaskill and Webb must maintain their very tiny leads over Republican incumbents and Tester must hang on over Sen. Burns in Montana. President Bush is out with Burns in Montana right now as I type this. Given Bush’s weak numbers even in Montana, this is obviously an effort by Burns to make sure that he gets the large Republican base in the state out to vote to offset highly motivated Democrats and Independents, with the Independents and Republican crossover votes having been responsible for the fact that the state’s other Senator and the state’s Governor are both
Democrats.


House:

Here’s a small sampling of some of the interesting things happening in individual House districts.

In Ohio 2, Rep. Schmidt, the woman who called Rep. Murtha, a former Marine, a coward for suggesting a withdraw from Iraq is trailing her Democratic challenger Wulsin. Murtha, sure of his own re-election in PA, has been spending a lot of time campaigning with Wulsin.

In Arizona 5, long time conservative stalwart Rep. J.D. Hayworth who won his last re-election by over 20 points, now trails his Democratic challenger Mitchell.

In Illinois 6, the seat of retiring House Judiciary Committee Chair Henry Hyde which he has held forever in Republican hands, Democrat Tammy Duckworth, an Army National Guard Captain who had her helicopter shot down in Iraq and is a double amputee, is leading the race by double digits. This looks to be a sure D Pickup and will be one of the districts where TV news coverage will be focused on Tuesday night.

In Texas 22, Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s long time R seat, the Democrat Lampson is up by nearly ten points.

In North Carolina 11, former Washington Redskins quarterback Heath Schler leads
incumbent Republican Rep. Taylor.

District by district polling now indicates that the Democrats will have a net gain in the House of 30-40 seats, more than double the 15 needed to take control. Today pollster John Zogby predicted a net gain of 38 seats for the Democrats and said that as many as 40 could flip, approaching the number in 1994 when the Republicans had of a net gain of 52 seats when they took control of the House after 40 years of Democratic rule.

If there’s anything especially interesting to report to all of you tomorrow before the weekend, I’ll shoot out another e-mail. As so many of you are well aware, once we enter the 72 hour window prior to Election Day, that’s traditionally when all the undecideds make up their minds and the polls give the final indication of how things are going to go. I’ll be around so I’ll be sure to do as I’ve done in previous elections and get out those late polling numbers in a final polling update for everybody on Monday and/or Tuesday.

Have a good one.

A Guide to the Worst Places on Earth

Vice magazine sent its correspondents out as a new form of embedded reporters. Traveling to meet with illegal-arms dealers in Pakistan, the failed Nazi commune of Nueva Germania in Paraguay, and attend a gang-sponsored rave in Rio's infamous slum, the City of God. They went to the places you never want to find yourself, and brought a camera crew.

Link to the story on MSNBC
and a direct link to the DVD trailer

This looks to be an eye opening view into the true underbelly of society. I'm heading over now to pick up a copy for myself.